Wholesale gas prices in the UK have risen significantly in recent weeks, increasing by around 40% compared with Summer 2025.
While price volatility is not new to energy markets, the drivers behind this rise highlight ongoing structural pressures that businesses should continue to factor into their energy strategies.
This is not a single-issue spike. It is the result of several overlapping supply, infrastructure and geopolitical factors that continue to shape the UK gas market.
What Has Driven the Recent Increase?
The recent rise in gas prices reflects a tightening of supply across European markets rather than a sudden surge in demand.
Key contributing factors include:
Reduced LNG availability
Liquefied natural gas cargoes have been diverted toward Asian markets, where demand has been stronger. This has reduced supply into Europe and the UK, increasing competition for available volumes.
Maintenance and outages
Planned and unplanned maintenance across parts of Europe’s gas infrastructure has constrained flows at a time when storage levels are being closely watched ahead of winter.
Geopolitical risk pricing
Ongoing global instability continues to add a risk premium to energy markets. Even where physical supply is not immediately disrupted, prices often reflect perceived future risk.
Lower storage buffers
European gas storage levels, while improving, remain a critical focus. Markets respond quickly to any signal that winter preparedness may be tighter than expected.
Taken together, these factors have pushed wholesale prices higher over a relatively short period.
How This Affects UK Businesses
For most businesses, the impact of rising wholesale gas prices depends heavily on contract structure and timing.
Organisations on fixed-price contracts are largely insulated in the short term.
Those on flexible, variable or short-term arrangements may feel the impact more quickly.
Businesses approaching renewal may face higher forward prices than earlier in the year.
It is also important to recognise that wholesale gas prices influence more than just gas bills. Gas remains a key driver of electricity pricing in the UK, meaning sustained increases can feed into wider energy costs.
What This Means for Budgets
Rising wholesale gas prices do not affect every organisation in the same way, but they do change the risk profile.
For budgeting and forecasting, this means:
Fixed-price contracts may provide short-term insulation, but can reset at higher levels at renewal
Flexible or pass-through contracts may see cost changes more quickly
Gas price movements can influence electricity costs, even for businesses with low gas consumption
Budget assumptions based on recent market lows may no longer hold
The most common issue is not higher prices in isolation, but unplanned exposure. Businesses that understand where risk sits early typically have more options than those reacting later.
Is This a Short-Term Spike or a Longer-Term Issue?
While markets can and do move quickly in both directions, the underlying conditions suggest continued volatility rather than a rapid return to low, stable pricing.
Global competition for LNG, infrastructure constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty are all likely to remain features of the energy landscape rather than temporary anomalies.
For businesses, this reinforces a broader reality: energy price risk is now structural and needs to be managed, not ignored.
What Businesses Should Be Doing Now
Rather than reacting to headlines, organisations should focus on control, visibility and planning.
Practical steps include:
Reviewing current contract positions and exposure
Understanding renewal timelines well in advance
Avoiding over-reliance on short-term market movements
Stress-testing budgets against different pricing scenarios
Taking a joined-up view of gas and electricity procurement
The aim is not to predict the market perfectly, but to avoid being exposed without a plan.
How Resolve Supports Smarter Energy Decisions
At Resolve, we help businesses cut through market noise and focus on what matters commercially.
That includes:
Explaining what price movements actually mean for your contracts
Identifying where risk sits and where it does not
Supporting informed procurement decisions based on timing, structure and appetite for risk
Helping organisations plan rather than react
Energy markets will continue to move. Businesses that understand their position are better placed to make calm, informed decisions when they do.
Final Thought
Rising gas prices are a reminder that volatility remains part of the energy landscape. For businesses, the challenge is not the movement itself but being unprepared for it.
Clear visibility, early planning and sound advice remain the most effective tools for managing energy cost risk in an uncertain market.
If you want to understand how current market conditions relate to your organisation’s energy contracts, now is the right time to review your position.
This article reflects current market conditions and publicly available information at the time of writing.
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